The outer space domain has become a pivotal area of competition among the U.S., Russia, China, and India. As space-based technology advances, especially in satellite miniaturization and launch capabilities, the realm once reserved for scientific exploration now sees strategic rivalry with significant implications for deterrence and arms control.

The shift towards smaller, more resilient satellite constellations has redefined the military utility of space assets. Rather than relying on a few large, vulnerable satellites, nations now deploy networks of smaller, more distributed systems. These constellations enable continuous surveillance, robust communication, and early-warning capabilities that are critical to maintaining strategic stability in the face of escalating great power competition and increasing space-based threats. This trend, while enhancing resilience, introduces a new layer of competition in space that may lead to the weaponization of the final frontier.

The development, testing, and potential use of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons by the U.S., India and other space faring nations underpins the risk of weaponization in space. America leads in ASAT capabilities, having pioneered and refined various methods since the 1950s. The U.S. conducted its first direct-ascent ASAT test in 1959 under Project Bold Orion, followed by numerous advancements, including the ASM-135 program, which successfully destroyed a satellite in 1985. An ASAT test was last done in 2022 to maintain military ascendancy. In 2008, Navy’s Operation Burnt Frost used a modified SM-3 missile to intercept a satellite. Reportedly, the U.S. has also pursued space-based co-orbital weapons to disable satellites in orbit and invests in non-kinetic weapons, such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and directed-energy weapons that won’t generate debris It established Space Force in 2019, claiming it was defensive in nature.

Russia pioneered space with Sputnik in 1957 and has developed and tested ASAT weapons thereon. Russia conducted a direct-ascent ASAT missile test in 2021, destroying its satellite in low-Earth orbit. To match U.S. counterspace capabilities, it has ground-based lasers and satellite-jamming systems to deny and degrade capacity of weapons that rely on satellite-enabled information. Allegedly, Moscow tested a co-orbital ASAT weapon in 2020. China has also kept pace in responding to America. In 2007, Beijing destroyed its satellite in its first ASAT test. China is also experimenting with DEWs, like ground-based lasers and is exploring co-orbital ASAT systems.

India has also entered the fray as a great power aspirant and in 2019, conducted its first ASAT test, creating huge debris of its satellite and endangering others in LEO. India justified this action as a defensive measure to safeguard its space assets. Indian ASAT weapons can destroy Pakistani satellites in a pre-emptive move. Such developments underscore how space weapons play into strategic calculus, fuelling security dilemmas that could soon weaponize the highly militarized final frontier. Pakistan advocates for the establishment of a Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT) to prevent an arms race in space.

Inter alia, the rapid advancement of small satellite constellations has transformed military communication and surveillance, enabling global coverage through networks of affordable satellites. This shift from reliance on a few expensive satellites to distributed systems enhances resilience and strategic stability. However, the proliferation of such technologies raises concerns about the weaponization of outer space, as nations may deploy these constellations for offensive capabilities. Investments in space-based early-warning systems, like the American Space-Based Infrared System that detects missile launches via infrared sensors, indicate a rapid march towards the weaponization of space. There is an urgent need for an international treaty to prevent an arms race in space.

The rapid escalation towards space-based weapons capabilities demands urgent arms control to guard the final frontier. Existing frameworks like the UN Moon Agreement and Outer Space Treaty offer a foundation, but robust, enforceable provisions are essential to address the space-weaponization risk. Since 2008, Russia and China have been advocating for a Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space Treaty (PPWT) as measure towards prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS) and presented a draft treaty text in 2014. To delay and allow room for building a sustainable competitive edge, the West prefers responsible behavior, norms and transparency measures rather than a PPWT-type binding commitment.

At the UN, Pakistan has expressed concern towards space weaponization, reaffirmed commitment to space as a conflict-free domain, called for negotiating a multilateral treaty like PPWT, and is open to an approach balancing both legally binding treaties and transparency measures. While Pakistan has signed and ratified all existing space treaties like the Moon agreement, India and U.S. have rejected them. If Islamabad’s good faith is met by weaponization, it should consider de-ratifying the Moon Agreement.

Outer space presents both opportunities and challenges. Some space-based capabilities can enhance surveillance and missile defense. However, the development of ASAT weapons and counter-space technologies raises serious concerns. A multilateral collaborative approach is critical to managing the strategic risks associated with this domain. As the weaponization of space accelerates, arms control mechanisms must evolve to prevent actions that threaten global security.