India’s Outer Space Weaponization and Deterrence in South Asia: A Prism of Stability-Instability Paradox
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61732/bj.v4i2.235Keywords:
Nuclear Deterrence, South Asian Stability, Regional Deterrence, Low-Intensity Conflict, Space WeaponizationAbstract
India’s growing outer space weaponization emboldens the idea of the stability-instability paradox in South Asia. In the context of its dual-use space technology, the successful Anti-satellite capability (ASAT) acquired in 2019 was indeed unprecedented for the region. Although the stability-instability paradox is analyzed through the prism of nuclear deterrence in the dominant literature, its implications in the evolving outer space domain remain uncharted territory. This research article delves into the subject with a threefold focus: the shifting calculus of security between India and Pakistan due to India’s outer space weaponization, the triggers of instability in the regional nuclear deterrence domain, and innate institutional constraints in outer space. It adopts a qualitative methodology that encompasses semi-structured interviews with subject specialists, analysis of policy documents, and a review of case studies to identify discursive patterns and shifts in escalation risk perceptions between India and Pakistan. The idea rests on the notion that the weaponization of space by India introduces a newer layer in regional deterrence dynamics by mirroring the logic of avoiding large-scale conflict and enabling low-intensity conflict in other domains. The study identifies a core research gap at the intersection of outer space security and deterrence theory, highlighting the urgency of a robust space governance mechanism capable of mitigating the risks of inadvertent escalation in an increasingly contested orbital environment. The study addresses the main research question: how is the logic of the stability-instability paradox being reshaped amid India’s growing outer space weaponization?
Downloads
References
Ahmed Saeed Minhas. “Space Weapons: A Rapidly Evolving Threat to South Asian Strategic Balance.” NDU Journal (2018).
Umar Farooq. “What Is National Power: Meaning, Definition, and Elements.” Study Lecture Notes, October 31, 2016. http://www.studylecturenotes.com/international-relations/what-is-national-power-meaning-definition-and-elements
United States Space Force. United States Space Force Chronology, 2019–2024. https://www.spaceforce.mil/Portals/2/Documents/anniversary/USSF-Chronology.pdf
Brian D. Green. “Countering Space-Based Weapons of Mass Destruction.” The Army Lawyer, Issue 1 (2025). https://tjaglcs.army.mil/Periodicals/The-Army-Lawyer/tal-2025-issue-1/Post/8018/Feature-Countering-Space-Based-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction
K. K. Nair. Space: The Frontiers of Modern Defense. New Delhi: Knowledge World in association with Centre for Air Power Studies, 2006.
Timothy Farnsworth. “China Conducts ASAT Test, US Says.” Arms Control Association (2008). https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2014-08/china-conducts-asat-test-us-says
Talia M. Blatt. “Anti-Satellite Weapons and the Emerging Space Arms Race.” Harvard International Review (2020). https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/
Alexei Arbatov. “Nuclear Deterrence: A Guarantee for or Threat to Strategic Stability?” Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies (2020): 65–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_5
Adeel Kazmi. “Nuclear Politics in South Asia: Deterrence Nuances of India–Pakistan Crisis (Mumbai to Pulwama).” Pakistan Journal of International Affairs (2024): 225–245. https://doi.org/10.52337/PJIA.V7I3.1144
Walter C. Ladwig III. “A Cold Start for Hot Wars: The Indian Army’s New Limited War Doctrine.” Harvard Kennedy School, Winter 2007/08.
Zafar Nawaz Jaspal. “Paradox of Deterrence: India–Pakistan Strategic Relations.” Strategic Studies 29, no. 4 (2009): 23–36. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48527700
Christopher Clary. “Four Days in May: The India–Pakistan Crisis of 2025.” Stimson Center Working Paper (2025). https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/
Angela White. “Space War: The Militarization and Weaponization of Space.” Michigan State University College of Law, International Law Review, February 16, 2017. https://www.msuilr.org/msuilr-legalforum-blogs/2017/2/16/space-war-the-militarization-weaponization-of-space
Rajesh Rajagopalan. “What Stability–Instability Paradox? Subnational Conflicts and the Nuclear Risk in South Asia.” SASSU Research Paper No. 4 (2006). https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99913/RP%20No%2004.pdf
Sannia Abdullah. “Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence: Trends and Trajectories.” Stimson Center (2018). https://southasianvoices.org/pakistan-full-spectrum-deterrence-trends-trajectories/
James Clay Moltz. The Politics of Space Security: Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of National Interests. 3rd ed. Stanford University Press, 2019.
Bleddyn E. Bowen. War in Space: Strategy, Space Power, Geopolitics. Edinburgh University Press, 2020.
RAND Corporation. Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space. RAND Monograph. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG916.pdf
Ajey Lele. “Indian ASAT: Mission Shakti Should Be a Comma, Not a Full Stop.” The Space Review (2023). https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4556/1
Nivedita Raju et al. “Escalation Risks at the Space–Nuclear Nexus.” SIPRI Research Policy Paper (2024). https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/2402_rpp_space-nuclear_nexus.pdf
Muhammad Tehsin. “Space Weaponization and Strategic Stability in South Asia.” Global Social Sciences Review 5, no. 1 (2020). https://www.humapub.com/admin/alljournals/gssr/papers/90LRePNqJt.pdf
United Nations. Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. 1967.
Brian Weeden and Victoria Samson. Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment. Secure World Foundation, 2022.
Sandra Erwin. “Anti-Satellite Weapons: The Growing Threat to Space Assets.” Space News (2019).
Todd Harrison, Kaitlyn Johnson, Whitney Roberts, and Makena Young. Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2020.
Muhammad Ahmed. “Strategic Asymmetries and Pakistan’s Emerging Space Doctrine: Lessons from the May 2025 Conflict.” Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), 2025. https://www.ipripak.org
Feroz Hassan Khan. “Stability–Instability in the Space Age: South Asia’s Doctrinal Evolution.” South Asia Strategic Affairs Review 33, no. 1 (2025): 41–60.
Shivam Bhardwaj. “India’s Space Militarization: Emerging Trends and Strategic Implications.” Observer Research Foundation (2020). https://www.orfonline.org/research/indias-space-militarisation-emerging-trends
Ayesha Karim, Saad Farooq, and Muhammad Ahmed. “Nuclear Issues, Escalation Control and Stability–Instability Paradox: Case Study of South Asia.” Journal of Security & Strategic Analyses (2022). https://thesvi.org/ojs/index.php/ojs/article/view/78
Press Information Bureau, Government of India. “English Rendering of the Prime Minister’s Address to the Nation.” May 12, 2025. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2128268
Tariq Khurshid. “Nuclear Deterrence: Fueling Instability in South Asia?” Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK (2024). https://cissajk.org.pk/2024/07/25/nuclear-deterrence-fueling-instability-in-south-asia/
Ajey Lele. “India’s Evolving Space Capabilities and Strategic Posture.” Journal of Defence Studies 11, no. 1 (2017): 45–62. https://idsa.in/jds/11_1_2017_india-evolving-space-capabilities
Asif Malik. “Pakistan’s Space Program: Challenges and Opportunities.” Space Policy 54 (2021): 102–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2021.102110
Imran Ali. “Towards Stability: A Theoretical Analysis of Strategic Choices in South Asia’s Deterrence Environment.” Pakistan Social Sciences Review (2024). https://ojs.pssr.org.pk/journal/article/view/578
Bleddyn Bowen. “The Geopolitics of Outer Space: The Role of India and Pakistan.” Journal of Strategic Studies 43, no. 6 (2020): 789–811. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1712345
Naveed Tariq. “Pakistan’s Strategic Challenges in Space: Technological and Diplomatic Dimensions.” Space Security Review 7, no. 3 (2020): 150–168.
James Gregory. “India’s Anti-Satellite Weapon Test and Its Strategic Implications.” Space Policy 48 (2019): 101–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2019.06.003
Ahsan Shah. “Deterrence under Surveillance: Indian Space-Based ISR Capabilities and Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence.” Journal of Security & Strategic Analyses (2022). https://jssa.thesvi.org/index.php/ojs/article/view/201
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Dr Beenish Sultan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
All articles are permanently available online to the public without restrictions or subscription fees. All articles are free to be used, cited, and distributed, on condition that appropriate acknowledgement is included. Authors are the copyright holders of their original contributions. The published article is simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License. “A CC license is used when an author wants to give people the right to share, use, and build upon a work that they have created” Wikipedia.
The BTTN Journal is an International, Open Access, and Peer-Reviewed Research Journal published by Balochistan Think Tank Network and licensed under CC BY 4.0.