The Russia-Ukraine War: Interdependence Theory and Its Impact on Russia’s Energy Exports and Economic Stability

Abstract

The research analyzes the economic and geopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia’s energy exports and financial resilience, utilizing the Interdependence Theory as a guiding framework. The eruption of war and subsequent Western sanctions disrupted Russia’s longstanding energy trade with Europe, driving a strategic pivot toward Asian markets, specifically China and India. This evolution has presented considerable barriers, including infrastructural constraints, diminished profit margins, and increased military costs, which have amplified domestic economic pressures. By examining the erosion of mutual economic dependencies, the research illustrates how geopolitical tensions can alter interdependence into vulnerability, fundamentally changing global energy safety and eco relations. The determinations underscore that while Russia has managed to redirect some exports, losing its primary European market and the complexities of new trade partnerships have weakened its economic position. This research contributes to broader debates on the resilience and adaptability of interconnected economies during geopolitical crises, offering insight into the evolving structure of international energy markets in an era marked by shifting alliances and persistent uncertainty. The study underscores the importance of understanding how external shocks can reshape national economies and the broader global order.