A Frozen Geopolitical Concern: Arctic Ocean and the Emerging Great Power Competition

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61732/bj.v3i2.125

Keywords:

Arctic Ocean Geopolitics, Climate Change, Great Power Competition, Sea Power, Maritime Trade

Abstract

The Arctic is on the cusp of a major shift. Defrosting of permafrost, thawing of ice sheet, and degradation of thick sea ice are the results of devastating climate change implications on the region. Arctic ice is melting faster than ever before and therefore, states are rushing to make claims and assert their influence in this region of geo-strategic significance. Climate change has made the Arctic a new geopolitical battlefield. Therefore, the paper poses three major questions: first, what is the strategic significance of the Arctic in contemporary times? Second, what are the domestic and international interests of the US, Russia, and China that are likely to compete in the Arctic? Third, how is the involvement of China- a non-Arctic state- impacting the strategic calculus of the Arctic? The paper argues that climate-induced melting of ice caps in the Arctic have encouraged the great powers- US, Russia, and China to view for influence. This influence is derived from the region’s untapped resources and its significance for the maritime trade routes. The paper concludes that even though the Arctic competition can have serious implications on the ongoing great power rivalry, the changing dynamics will also unravel opportunities with regards to maritime trade.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Nageen Ashraf, Graduate, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

Nageen Ashraf holds an MPhil Degree in International Relations, from the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR) Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

References

Wilfrid Greaves, “Arctic break up: Climate change, geopolitics, and the fragmenting Arctic security region”, Arctic Yearbook 2019.

National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea ice this January: so last decade”, February 3, 2022, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2022/02/arctic-sea-ice-this-january-so-last-decade/

Alekseev G. V., N. I. Glok, A. E. Vyazilova, and N. E. Kharlanenkova, "Climate change in the Arctic: causes and mechanisms." In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 606, no. 1, p. 012002. IOP Publishing, 2020, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/606/1/012002/pdf

Scott G. Borgerson, Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming, Council on Foreign Relations, Mar. - Apr., 2008, Vol. 87, No. 2, pp. 63-77, https://www.jstor.org/stable/20032581

Robin Marc Allers, András Rácz, and Tobias Sæther, "Dealing with Russia in the Arctic: between Exceptionalism and Militarization." (2021): 19, https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/75746

Rob Huebert, "A new Cold War in the Arctic? The Old One Never Ended." Arctic Yearbook (2019): 1-4,https://arcticyearbook.com/images/yearbook/2019/Briefing-Notes/2_AY2019_COM_Huebert.pdf

David Krumm, and Matthew Nicholson, "The Arctic in an Age of Strategic Competition." Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs 4 (2021): 18-27,https://media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/24/2002879325

Eddy Carmack, Gail Whiteman, Jeremy Wilkinson, and Jan-Gunnar Winther, “4 reasons why the Arctic is key to our planet’s survival, World Economic Forum, January 9, 2019, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/4-reasons-why-the-arctic-is-key-to-our-planetssurvival/

Mark Rowe, “Arctic Nations Are Squaring Up To Exploit The Region’s Rich Natural Resources”, Geographical, August 12, 2022,https://geographical.co.uk/geopolitics/the-world-is-gearing-up-to-mine-the-arctic.

Scott G. Borgerson, Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming: 67.

Warfare in a fragile world: Military Impact on the Human Environment. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Taylor and Francis: London, 1980.

Warfare in a fragile world: Military Impact on the Human Environment. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Pavel Devyatkin, (Senior Associate, The Arctic Institute- USA), Interview via questionnaire, April 18, 2023.

Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen, (Professor, UiT- The Arctic University of Norway), Interview via questionnaire, July 3, 2023.

Speech of then Russian president Dmitri Medvedev at a meeting of the Russian Security Council on Protecting Russia’s National Interests in the Arctic, September 17, 2008, http://eng.kremlin.ru/ text/speeches/2008/09/17/1945_type82912type82913_206564.shtml (accessed April 16, 2023).

Andreas Østhagen, The Nuances of Geopolitics in the Arctic, The Arctic Institute, January 7, 2020,https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/nuancesgeopolitics-arctic/

Geir Hønneland, “Russia And The Arctic Environment, Identity And Foreign Policy.” (I.B.Tauris: New York: 2016)

Tom Parfitt, “Russia plants flag on North Pole seabed”, The Guardian, August 2, 2007,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/aug/02/russia.arctic

Scott G. Borgerson, Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming: 63.

Elizabeth Buchanan, “Russia’s Gains In The Great Arctic Race”, War on the Rocks, May 4 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/russias-gains-in-the-great-arctic-race/

Arctic Council, About the Arctic Council, Accessed April 14, 2023, https://arctic-council.org/about/

US Department of State, Arctic Region, Accessed April 14, 2023, https://www.state.gov/key-topics-office-of-ocean-and-polaraffairs/arctic/

Elizabeth Wishnick & Cameron Carlson, The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Freezes Moscow’s Arctic Ambitions, Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, October 3, 2022, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3172713/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-freezes-moscows-arctic-ambitions/

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, “Putin Is Pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO’s Arms,” New York Times, 25 April 2022,https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/opinion/finland-sweden-join-nato.html

Joint Statement on Arctic Council Cooperation Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” (statement, Office of the Spokesperson, US Department of State, 3 March2022), https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-arctic-councilcooperation-following-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/.

Caitlyn L. Antrim, “The Next Geographical Pivot: The Russian Arctic In The Twenty-First Century.” Naval War College Review 63, no. 3(2010): 14–38, http://www.jstor.org/stable/26397122.

Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Scott Stephenson, “Maintaining Arctic cooperation with Russia: planning for regional change in the far North”, RAND Corporation. 2017, http://www.rand.org/t/RR1731

Nikita Lipunov & Pavel Devyatkin, “The Arctic in the 2023 Russian Foreign Policy Concept.” The Arctic Institute - Center for Circumpolar Security Studies. May 30, 2023, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-2023-russian-foreign-policy-concept/.

Wilfrid Greaves, “Arctic break up: Climate change, geopolitics, and the fragmenting Arctic security region.”

Denis JB. Shaw, "Russia and the Arctic: Environment, Identity and Foreign Policy." (2016): 785-787.

Laruelle, Marlene, Russia's Arctic strategies and the future of the Far North. (London & Newyork: Routledge, 2015).

Fridtjof Nansen, Through Siberia, The Land Of The Future (Cambridge University Press, 2014).

Stacy R. Closson, “Russian Foreign Policy in the Arctic: Balancing Cooperation and Competition”, Wilson Center June 2017,https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/publication/kennan_cable_24_-_closson.pdf

Malte Humpert, “Russia Amends Arctic Policy Prioritizing ‘National Interest’ and Removing Cooperation Within Arctic Council”, High North News, March 15 2023, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-amends-arctic-policy-prioritizing-national-interest-and-removing-cooperation-within-arctic

Linda Jakobson, "China prepares for an ice-free Arctic." SIPRI insights on peace and security 2010, no. 2 (2010),https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/insight/SIPRIInsight1002.pdf

Olga Alexeeva, and Frédéric Lasserre, "The Snow Dragon: China’s Strategies In The Arctic," China Perspectives 2012, no. 2012/3 (2012): 61-68, https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.5958

Paweł Paszak, “China and the “Malacca Dilemma”, Warsaw Institute, 28 February 2021, https://warsawinstitute.org/china-malaccadilemma/

Malte Humpert, “China to Supply Key Turbines to Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2”, High North News, May 22 2023,https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/china-supply-key-turbines-novateks-arctic-lng-2

Elisabeth Braw, “Arctic Harmony Is Falling Apart’, Foreign Policy, May 15, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/15/russia-chinaarctic-cooperation-svalbard/

Swee Lean Collin Koh, “China’s Strategic Interest In The Arctic Goes Beyond Economics”, Defense News, May 12, 2020,https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/11/chinas-strategic-interest-in-the-arctic-goes-beyond-economics/

Rush Doshi, Alexis Dale-Huang, and Gaoqi Zhang, "Northern expedition: China’s Arctic ambition and activism," Foreign Policy at Brookings (2021), https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2021/04/FP_20210412_china_arctic.pdf

Anu Sharma, “China’s Polar Silk Road: Implications for the Arctic Region”, Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press, October 25, 2021, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2820750/chinas-polar-silk-road-implications-for-the-arctic-region/

David Auerswald, China’s Multifaceted Arctic Strategy, War On the Rocks, May 24, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/chinas-multifaceted-arctic-strategy/ (Accessed April 14, 2023).

Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen, (Professor, UiT The Arctic University of Norway),

Interview via questionnaire, July 3, 2023.

Rob Huebert, (Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary), Interview

via questionnaire, May 17, 2023.

Gary Lawson, and Guy Seidman, The constitution of empire: Territorial expansion and American legal history, (Yale University Press, 2008).

George W. Baer, One Hundred Years Of Sea Power: The US Navy, 1890-1990, (Stanford University Press, 1994).

The White House, Directive on Arctic Region Policy, January 9, 2009, January 12, 2009, pg. 1546,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-2008-book2/pdf/PPP-2008-book2-doc-pg1545.pdf

The White House, National Strategy For The Arctic Region, October 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/

National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdf (Accessed April 12, 2023).

Bryant Harris, “White House Arctic strategy calls for enhanced military presence”, Defense News, October 7, 2022, https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/10/07/white-house-arctic-strategy-calls-for-enhanced-military-presence/

James C. McConville, “Regaining Arctic Dominance: The US Army in the Arctic,” Department of the Army, 2021, https://www.army.mil/e2/downloads/rv7/about/2021_army_arctic_strategy.pdf.

James Kraska. "The new Arctic geography and US strategy." In Arctic security in an age of climate change (2011): 244-66. Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511994784.015

Stephen J. Blank, ed. Russia in the Arctic. Strategic Studies Institute, 2011. Pg. 18

Linda Jakobson. "China Prepares for An Ice-Free Arctic." SIPRI insights on peace and security 2010

“Warfare In A Fragile World: Military Impact On The Human Environment” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Swee Lean Collin Koh, “China’s Strategic Interest In The Arctic Goes Beyond Economics” Defense News. 12 May2020.

A Frozen Geopolitical Concern Arctic Ocean and the Emerging Great Power Competition

Published

2024-12-31

How to Cite

Ashraf, N. (2024). A Frozen Geopolitical Concern: Arctic Ocean and the Emerging Great Power Competition . BTTN Journal , 3(2), 158–182. https://doi.org/10.61732/bj.v3i2.125

Issue

Section

Articles